Well, 25% of Europe’s primary energy is generated from gas.
In Germany, for example, while a significant part of our gas is used to heat our homes, the largest consumer of oil and natural gas is industry. German industry consumed almost 800,000 terrajouls in 2020. The top consumers? Chemical producers, glass and ceramic manufacturers, metal processesing, the food and paper industries.
But industry doesn’t only use gas to generate heat. Gas is also a raw material. For instance, no natural gas means no fertilizer. You can imagine what that means. Russia and Belarus are among the largest fertilizer producers in the world. Germany gets more than half of its fertilizer and gas from Russia.
Germany is the 3rd largest agricultural exporter in the world and with far less fertilizer won’t be able to produce as much food for themselves or the rest of the world. Add to that the consequences of the Russian blockade of grain exports from Ukraine and a worldwide shortage of fertilizer and a picture of Russia’s war plan begins to emerge.
The cost of living isn’t only rising for us, but also throughout Europe and the rest of the world. Prices will explode and poverty will increase. Inflation could hit 7%. not only here, but world wide.
A large number of refugees are already moving towards Europe. Imagine the number when times get even tougher. All a part of Putin’s treacherous master plan: Explode the prices on the food market to fuel a migration explosion.
But will we in Europe survive the winter at all? Or will we all freeze to death?
The good news is: We’re not gonna freeze. Private households and necessary social insitiutions, like hospitals, schools, and heating plants in Europe are considered “protected customers” and so must be supplied with gas.
Industrial customers, on the other hand, are not so lucky.
But don’t worry, we have a plan. If Russia turns of the pipes, a Europe-wide solidarity would take effect. Countries with oil shortages would have to be supplied by the other countries. That means, the remaining 50% of non-Russian gas would be distributed evenly in Europe.
In addition, Europe’s gas storage tanks are almost 100% full.
It will be enough for this winter. But if we can’t find imports to replace Russian gas, our storage facilities will run out and we will not be able to fully replenish them next summer. So the problem we are facing is not freezing THIS winter, but NEXT winter.
Various scenarios were calculated for Germany about what happens if the Nord Stream pipeline completly stops delivering gas. Only two scenarios showed no shortage. In both scenarios we have to reduce our consumption by 20%. If we can’t manage to increase our imports by +15 GW we have to reduce our exports by 35%. Yes, Germany also exports gas. If we can’t manage this, next winter will get very, very cold.
If the gas supply situation keeps getting worse the “emergency stage”, of the so-called European contingency plan for gas, will take effect. This means supply reductions. These rulings primarily affect companies, but ultimately the Federal Network Agency could also ration your supply. Whole branches of industry could be totally shut down. You could lose your job and entire value chains would collapse. But hey, see it positively.
So where do we get the missing gas from? Iran? Saudi Arabia? Venezuela? Qatar?
You could do your part and try to cut down how much energy you use by maybe turning the heat down or washing yourself with a rag instead of showering. You know, EU member states have already managed to consume 15% less gas than in comparable periods from 2016 to 2021. But that won’t be enough. So why don’t we switch to other forms of energy?
Like Hydrogen, for example.
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe after all. Well, sorry to burst your bubble, you inventive geniuses, but most Industrial plants are not designed to run on hydrogen, and besides, most hydrogen is currently produced from another substance. What substance you ask? Yep, natural gas.
Let’s face it. We are gonna have to tighten our belts for a while, but gas will continue to flow to Europe. The only way that Europe will truly run out of gas, is if there were no more gas left in the whole world.
